Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slask Wroclaw face Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tarczyński Arena plays host to Slask Wroclaw versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 1). Kick-off: Friday 19 July 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Slask Wroclaw have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Lechia Gdansk — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.89 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.045 / defence 0.934 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.083. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 34 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 60% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 15%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.66 | Draw 4.06 | Lechia Gdansk 6.62. The model has a clear lean to Slask Wroclaw (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Slask Wroclaw 34 games, Lechia Gdansk 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 1 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 July 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 60% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.89 / Lechia Gdansk 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.045 / def 0.934 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lechia Gdansk xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 19 July 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 1) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 60% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.85x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 34 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.06
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.75
0.86
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
43.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.86 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Pre-Season
Lechia Gdansk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Lechia Gdansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Pre-Season
Lechia Gdansk
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 7 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Lechia Gdansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 December 2024: Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Slask Wroclaw and Lechia Gdansk drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.89 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.86 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 60% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 15%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.