Ruch Chorzów 0-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruch Chorzów at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Ruch Chorzów welcome Puszcza Niepołomice to Stadion Śląski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ruch Chorzów — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruch Chorzów have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Śląski — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ruch Chorzów at 0.90 PPG versus Puszcza Niepołomice's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruch Chorzów in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ruch Chorzów 58% and Puszcza Niepołomice 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.37 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.805 / defence 1.065 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.826 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.141. Data: 26 Ruch Chorzów games / 26 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 42% | Draw 33% | Puszcza Niepołomice 25%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruch Chorzów are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruch Chorzów offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ruch Chorzów 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 42% | Draw 33% | Puszcza Niepołomice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.37 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.805 / def 1.065 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.826 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ruch Chorzów (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Ruch Chorzów 0 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 42% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ruch Chorzów the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): Ruch Chorzów 0W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruch Chorzów's attack at 0.81x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruch Chorzów Win
42%
2.35
33%
3.06
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.37
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.00 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruch Chorzów come into this having played 26 games, going 2W 13D 11L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (5W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruch Chorzów on 0.73 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruch Chorzów's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Puszcza Niepołomice have taken 0.46 points per game from 13 outings (1W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruch Chorzów come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.23 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 2W 13D 11L in their last 26 games (0.73 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Ruch Chorzów's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.92 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
2
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 0-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 46%, Puszcza Niepołomice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ruch Chorzów) and 46% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 38% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruch Chorzów play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 62% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruch Chorzów vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 46% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Ruch Chorzów have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruch Chorzów's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruch Chorzów and Puszcza Niepołomice finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.37 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 42% | Draw 33% | Puszcza Niepołomice 25%, with Ruch Chorzów to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruch Chorzów 0.73 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.