Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Piast Gliwice.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice meet at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena.

Piast Gliwice (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Piast Gliwice — a 0D 3W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 60% and Piast Gliwice 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 53% | Piast Gliwice 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.63 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.020 / defence 1.304 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.914 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 38 Raków Częstochowa games / 40 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 34%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Piast Gliwice 60%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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