Raków Częstochowa 2-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 5–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Jagiellonia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 54% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.222 / defence 0.857 | Jagiellonia attack 0.813 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.210. Data: 37 Raków Częstochowa games / 38 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Jagiellonia 4.76. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Jagiellonia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.52 / Jagiellonia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.222 / def 0.857 | Jagiellonia attack 0.813 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Jagiellonia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 53% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.22x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.86
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.37
0.84
Jagiellonia xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.84 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 9D 6L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 10W 12D 15L from 37 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.28 PPG from 18 outings (12W 5D 1L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 9D 6L in their last 37 games (2.03 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 10W 12D 15L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.28 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Jagiellonia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Raków Częstochowa) and 61% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 56% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 61% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia finished level at 2-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.22 / defence 0.86 against Jagiellonia attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 53% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 54%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.