Raków Częstochowa 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 September 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 1D 3L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 1.60 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 44% versus Gornik Zabrze 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 41% | Gornik Zabrze 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.993 / defence 1.074 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.084 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.175. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Raków Częstochowa games / 41 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Gornik Zabrze 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 80% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.25 / Gornik Zabrze 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.993 / def 1.074 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.084 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Gornik Zabrze xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 September 2025 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (7 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.99) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.72
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.62
1.37
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.37 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 39 games, going 22W 9D 8L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (17W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.31 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 17W 7D 15L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.83 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
6
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 56%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Raków Częstochowa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 0-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.25 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 0.78, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 34% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 39%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 41%, Gornik Zabrze 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.