Radomiak Radom 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 58%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Radomiak Radom welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Wisla Plock and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Wisla Plock trading profile (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 82% and Wisla Plock 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 73% | Wisla Plock 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.169 / defence 0.960 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.173. Data: 46 Radomiak Radom games / 11 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Wisla Plock 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.83 / Wisla Plock 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.169 / def 0.960 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 October 2025 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 58% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Record (4 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.19
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.77
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
34.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.94 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 2L across 11 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.36 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Wisla Plock away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 75%, Wisla Plock at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 25% (Wisla Plock).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Radomiak Radom's games and 75% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 25% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 58% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 18%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 73%, Wisla Plock 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.