Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 39%, yet in-form Wisla Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Wisla Krakow make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Wisla Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wisla Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wisla Krakow are 0.70 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 64% and Wisla Krakow 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 73% | Wisla Krakow 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.46 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.880 / defence 1.168 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.788 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 11 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 39% | Draw 33% | Wisla Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Wisla Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Wisla Krakow 67% BTTS from recent games.

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