Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pogon Szczecin make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Radomiak Radom 4W, Pogon Szczecin 4W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Pogon Szczecin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.941 / defence 1.015 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.927 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.278. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 36%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Pogon Szczecin 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Pogon Szczecin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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