Radomiak Radom 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Radomiak Radom take on Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Radomiak Radom's 0% and Legia Warszawa's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.242. Data: 1 Radomiak Radom games / 1 Legia Warszawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Legia Warszawa 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 0.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.17 / Legia Warszawa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 31% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.97) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
36%
2.81
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.21 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 0%.
Defensively: Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Legia Warszawa in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Radomiak Radom or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 0% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 0% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 36% | Legia Warszawa 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 0%, Legia Warszawa 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.