Radomiak Radom 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lech Poznan's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Lech Poznan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Lech Poznan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 48% versus Lech Poznan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Lech Poznan 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.673 / defence 0.907 | Lech Poznan attack 1.123 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.065. Radomiak Radom's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Radomiak Radom games / 62 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 34% | Lech Poznan 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Lech Poznan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 20% | Lech Poznan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 34% | Lech Poznan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.82 / Lech Poznan 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.673 / def 0.907 | Lech Poznan attack 1.123 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lech Poznan xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.67x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
26%
3.83
34%
2.96
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.90
1.08
Lech Poznan xG
3.83
26%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.08 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 22D 20L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 35W 17D 10L from 62 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Venue Form
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 15W 12D 4L from 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.73 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 35W 17D 10L in their last 62 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.39 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 52%, Lech Poznan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Radomiak Radom) and 55% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 32%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Radomiak Radom's games and 61% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 55% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.08 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.67 / defence 0.91 against Lech Poznan attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 34% | Lech Poznan 40%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Lech Poznan 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.