Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 7W 2D 0L from 9 home games — 2.56 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 60% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 35% | Zaglebie Lubin 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.55 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / defence 1.060 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.675 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.203. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Pogon Szczecin games / 20 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 74% | Draw 16% | Zaglebie Lubin 10%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Zaglebie Lubin 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 78% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 74% | Draw 16% | Zaglebie Lubin 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.55 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.355 / def 1.060 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.675 / def 1.587 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Zaglebie Lubin xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 74% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.35) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.39
10%
9.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.41
0.86
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.39
16%
Draw
9.55
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
8%
12.78
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
122.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.86 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 20 games, going 11W 7D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 7W 2D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.05 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 11W 7D 2L in their last 20 games (2.00 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.56 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 78%, Zaglebie Lubin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Pogon Szczecin and 67% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Zaglebie Lubin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 33% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.55 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.86 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.35 / defence 1.06 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.68 / defence 1.59, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 74% | Draw 16% | Zaglebie Lubin 10%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 35%, Zaglebie Lubin 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.