Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.60 PPG versus Wisla Plock's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Wisla Plock 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 60% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Wisla Plock 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.944 / defence 1.114 | Wisla Plock attack 0.965 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.108. Data: 64 Pogon Szczecin games / 30 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 33%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Wisla Plock 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.31 / Wisla Plock 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.944 / def 1.114 | Wisla Plock attack 0.965 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 38% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (0.94) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.40
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.50
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.19 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 11W 5D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Wisla Plock's form line: 12W 9D 9L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.27 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Wisla Plock away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.73 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 67%, Wisla Plock at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pogon Szczecin) and 33% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 73% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 33% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Wisla Plock 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.31 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Wisla Plock 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.27 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.