Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.60 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 50% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.53 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / defence 1.041 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.035 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.185. Data: 56 Pogon Szczecin games / 56 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.53 / Widzew Łódź 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / def 1.041 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.035 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Widzew Łódź xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 6W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.12) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.03x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.56
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Widzew Łódź xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.28 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 28L across 56 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 19W 4D 5L from 28 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 5D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 10D 28L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.18 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 46%, Widzew Łódź 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Pogon Szczecin) and 57% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 61% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 57% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.53 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 30%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.