Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 68%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Radomiak Radom are 0.70 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Radomiak Radom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–5 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 49% versus Radomiak Radom 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Radomiak Radom 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.99 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.364 / defence 1.124 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.061 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.214. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Pogon Szczecin games / 51 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.99 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.44 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Radomiak Radom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 74% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.99 / Radomiak Radom 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.364 / def 1.124 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.061 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Radomiak Radom xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 68% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (9 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 4W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.99. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.06x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.84
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
4 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
4.44
1.45
Radomiak Radom xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
5%
19.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
1%
132.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.45 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 23W 9D 19L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.29 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (18W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.59 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.24 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 44%, Radomiak Radom 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Pogon Szczecin and 76% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 72% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 76% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 18, as Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.99 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.36 / defence 1.12 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.06 / defence 1.33, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Radomiak Radom 15%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Radomiak Radom 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.