Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Motor Lublin have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Motor Lublin away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.40 for Motor Lublin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–4 with Motor Lublin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 39% versus Motor Lublin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 52% | Motor Lublin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.296 / defence 0.815 | Motor Lublin attack 0.838 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.266. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Pogon Szczecin games / 31 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 12%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Motor Lublin 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Motor Lublin 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 52% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.31 / Motor Lublin 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.296 / def 0.815 | Motor Lublin attack 0.838 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Motor Lublin xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 0 Motor Lublin.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 70% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | Motor Lublin 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.30) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.84x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.63
12%
8.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.17
0.86
Motor Lublin xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
8.04
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
10%
10.07
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
1%
80.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.86 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 31 games, going 16W 5D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.39 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 12W 1D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.42 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Motor Lublin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 16W 5D 10L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Motor Lublin away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.47 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin?
From 5 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 27%, Motor Lublin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pogon Szczecin) and 60% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 53% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 60% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Motor Lublin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against Motor Lublin attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 70% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 12%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Motor Lublin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.71 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.