Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 43%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 1 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 July 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 3 for Legia Warszawa and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 59% versus Legia Warszawa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Legia Warszawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.46 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.004 / defence 0.978 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Pogon Szczecin games / 34 Legia Warszawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jul 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.46 / Legia Warszawa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.004 / def 0.978 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 24 July 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (9 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 3 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.00) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.58
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.60
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.14 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 6D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. Pogon Szczecin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (12W 13D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. Legia Warszawa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.32 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.24 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Pre-Season
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 6D 15L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 12W 13D 9L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.76 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 65%, Legia Warszawa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pogon Szczecin) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 65% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 0-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.46 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Legia Warszawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.32 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.