Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Pogon Szczecin have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 2.00 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Pogon Szczecin's 30% BTTS rate and Lech Poznan's 30% (from Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 41% versus Lech Poznan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Lech Poznan 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.093 / defence 0.740 | Lech Poznan attack 0.828 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.142. Pogon Szczecin have a tight defence (rating 0.740), which is pulling Lech Poznan's projected output down. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 56 games and Lech Poznan's last 56.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 18%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.84 | Draw 3.68 | Lech Poznan 5.45. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.43 / Lech Poznan 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.093 / def 0.740 | Lech Poznan attack 0.828 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Lech Poznan xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 3 Lech Poznan.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 56 games and Lech Poznan's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.68
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.13
0.70
Lech Poznan xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
4%
22.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.70 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 28W 10D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 28W 13D 15L from 56 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.68 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 27 home games (17W 3D 7L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 9W 9D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.55 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Lech Poznan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 10D 18L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 28W 13D 15L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.00 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-0 Lech Poznan.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 41%, Lech Poznan 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pogon Szczecin) and 44% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 37%; Lech Poznan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 48% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 44% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 74% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Pogon Szczecin 0-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Lech Poznan 0.70 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.74 against Lech Poznan attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Lech Poznan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.68 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.