Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 3D 1L across 7 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 0L this season (3 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.71 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.57 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (1.71 vs 1.14) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 57% and Cracovia Krakow 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 14% | Cracovia Krakow 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.86 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.257 / defence 0.938 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.734 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.119. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Pogon Szczecin games / 7 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 62% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 14%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Cracovia Krakow 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 33% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 62% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.86 / Cracovia Krakow 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.257 / def 0.938 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.734 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cracovia Krakow xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 62% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.73x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.17
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.63
0.77
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
46.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.77 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 3.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Pogon Szczecin) and 33% (Cracovia Krakow) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pogon Szczecin) and 67% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 8, as Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.86 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.77 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 62% | Draw 24% | Cracovia Krakow 14%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 14%, Cracovia Krakow 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.