Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.40 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (2.10 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cracovia Krakow in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Cracovia Krakow managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Cracovia Krakow 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.99 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / defence 1.017 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.842 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 19%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.99 / Cracovia Krakow 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / def 1.017 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.842 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cracovia Krakow xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 56% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 6W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.84x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.97
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.09
1.11
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
38.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.11 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 20W 9D 17L from 46 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 10W 18D 18L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 8D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 18D 18L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.78 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 61%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pogon Szczecin) and 56% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 39%; Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.