Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.60 PPG lead over Cracovia Krakow (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Cracovia Krakow managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 49% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.951 / defence 0.888 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.753 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Data: 41 Pogon Szczecin games / 42 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 49% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 17%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 5.88. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 49% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.50 / Cracovia Krakow 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.951 / def 0.888 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.753 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 49% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 6W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.75x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
49%
2.03
33%
2.99
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.33
0.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.03
49%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.83 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 16W 9D 16L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 14L across 41 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.15 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 8D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 17D 14L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.75 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 65%, Cracovia Krakow 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 45%; Cracovia Krakow in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 40% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.