Piast Gliwice 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Piast Gliwice welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.30 PPG versus Widzew Łódź's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Widzew Łódź have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Piast Gliwice's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Widzew Łódź have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 56% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 54% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.57 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.167 / defence 1.154 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.952 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.351. Data: 43 Piast Gliwice games / 43 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Widzew Łódź 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.57 / Widzew Łódź 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.167 / def 1.154 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.952 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Widzew Łódź xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 6W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.28
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.05
1.49
Widzew Łódź xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.49 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 9D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.19 PPG from 43 outings (13W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.26 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.38 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
6
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Widzew Łódź have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Piast Gliwice 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 57%, Widzew Łódź 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Piast Gliwice) and 43% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 48% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 43% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.57 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.49 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 54%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.26 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.