Piast Gliwice 0-0 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Ruch Chorzów's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ruch Chorzów have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Ruch Chorzów have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Piast Gliwice's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ruch Chorzów half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 60% versus Ruch Chorzów 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 40% | Ruch Chorzów 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.81 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / defence 1.050 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.968 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 0.925. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Piast Gliwice games / 5 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 58% | Draw 23% | Ruch Chorzów 19%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Ruch Chorzów 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Ruch Chorzów 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 58% | Draw 23% | Ruch Chorzów 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.81 / Ruch Chorzów 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / def 1.050 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.968 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.395 / away 0.925 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ruch Chorzów xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 58% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ruch Chorzów's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Ruch Chorzów's attack (0.97x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.37
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.75
0.94
Ruch Chorzów xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
31.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.94 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruch Chorzów, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 0.80 for Ruch Chorzów. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Ruch Chorzów
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Piast Gliwice or Ruch Chorzów been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ruch Chorzów in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
1
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Ruch Chorzów have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 3-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów?
Ruch Chorzów have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 60%, Ruch Chorzów 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Piast Gliwice) and 60% (Ruch Chorzów).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 40% of games; Ruch Chorzów in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Ruch Chorzów?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 40% of Ruch Chorzów's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 60% of Ruch Chorzów's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 6, as Piast Gliwice and Ruch Chorzów drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.81 xG and Ruch Chorzów 0.94 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ruch Chorzów landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.97 / defence 1.35, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 58% | Draw 23% | Ruch Chorzów 19%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 40%, Ruch Chorzów 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG, Ruch Chorzów 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Ruch Chorzów managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.