Piast Gliwice 2-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadion Miejski — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.10 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 45% versus Radomiak Radom 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 30% | Radomiak Radom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.43 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.840 / defence 0.924 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.857 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.163. Data: 56 Piast Gliwice games / 57 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Radomiak Radom 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.43 / Radomiak Radom 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.840 / def 0.924 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.857 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Radomiak Radom xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 47% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.84x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.31
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.35
0.92
Radomiak Radom xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.92 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 18W 21D 17L from 56 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 23L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.34 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 11W 5D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.05 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 21D 17L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.33 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 48%, Radomiak Radom 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 52% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 33%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 37% of games; Radomiak Radom in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 33% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 52% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Piast Gliwice 2-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.43 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.92 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 30%, Radomiak Radom 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.34 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.