Piast Gliwice 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Miejski — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.00 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 35% | Jagiellonia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.29 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.938 / defence 1.057 | Jagiellonia attack 0.900 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.263. Data: 51 Piast Gliwice games / 51 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 60% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.29 / Jagiellonia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.938 / def 1.057 | Jagiellonia attack 0.900 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jagiellonia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.37
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.50
1.20
Jagiellonia xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.20 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 13D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (13W 19D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.37 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.25 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 13W 19D 19L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.28 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 56%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Piast Gliwice) and 56% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 28% of games; Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Piast Gliwice's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 56% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 18, as Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.29 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Jagiellonia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 35%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.37 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.