Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Raków Częstochowa's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 60% and Raków Częstochowa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 42% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.12 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 0.793 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 38 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 61% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 15%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Raków Częstochowa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Legia Warszawa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 61% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.12 / Raków Częstochowa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 0.793 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Raków Częstochowa xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 61% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 4 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.28x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.97x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.03
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.12
1.00
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
56.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.00 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 15D 9L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (16W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.45 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 14W 15D 9L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.89 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 53%, Raków Częstochowa 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Legia Warszawa) and 63% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Legia Warszawa's games and 74% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 63% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.