Legia Warszawa 1-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Korona Kielce at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 0.70 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Korona Kielce, with 3 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Korona Kielce trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Korona Kielce 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Korona Kielce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.815 / defence 0.884 | Korona Kielce attack 0.925 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.233. Data: 52 Legia Warszawa games / 52 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 31%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Korona Kielce 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Korona Kielce 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.12 / Korona Kielce 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.815 / def 0.884 | Korona Kielce attack 0.925 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 37% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 3 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.06
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.13
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.01 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 19W 16D 17L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 17L across 52 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.40 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 12W 8D 6L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 5W 13D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.12 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 19W 16D 17L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 17W 18D 17L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.69 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 58%, Korona Kielce 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 31% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 31% of games; Korona Kielce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Legia Warszawa's games and 62% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 31% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Legia Warszawa 1-2 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.