Legia Warszawa 3-1 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Górnik Łęczna make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 2W 0D 3L across 5 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Górnik Łęczna's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 2.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Górnik Łęczna have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Legia Warszawa, 0.71 for Górnik Łęczna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Górnik Łęczna — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Legia Warszawa 20% | Górnik Łęczna 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 20% | Górnik Łęczna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.23 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.863 / defence 1.033 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.620 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.106. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Legia Warszawa games / 7 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Górnik Łęczna 5.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 20% | Górnik Łęczna 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.23 / Górnik Łęczna 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.863 / def 1.033 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.620 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Górnik Łęczna xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 47% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.86) and Górnik Łęczna's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Górnik Łęczna's attack (0.62x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 5/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.04
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
1.94
0.71
Górnik Łęczna xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.71 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Górnik Łęczna's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 0.80 for Górnik Łęczna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Legia Warszawa or Górnik Łęczna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Górnik Łęczna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Legia Warszawa) and 40% (Górnik Łęczna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Legia Warszawa) and 60% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 40% of games; Górnik Łęczna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Górnik Łęczna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 40% of Górnik Łęczna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 60% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Górnik Łęczna 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.23 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.71 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 5/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 33% | Górnik Łęczna 20%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 20%, Górnik Łęczna 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.20 PPG, Górnik Łęczna 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.