Legia Warszawa 2-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Legia Warszawa have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 51% versus Cracovia Krakow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Cracovia Krakow 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.55 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.270 / defence 1.016 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.903 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.131. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Legia Warszawa games / 53 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Cracovia Krakow 4.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 50% | Cracovia Krakow 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.55 / Cracovia Krakow 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.270 / def 1.016 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.903 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cracovia Krakow xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.27x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.46
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.04 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 9D 20L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 20W 14D 19L from 53 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.53 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (17W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 24W 9D 20L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 14D 19L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.04 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 46%, Cracovia Krakow 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 31% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 31% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 20, as Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.55 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Cracovia Krakow 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.53 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.