Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Widzew Łódź to Polsat Plus Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 5W 2D 3L at Polsat Plus Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.00 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 67% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 60% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.90 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.953 / defence 1.159 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.037 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.151. Widzew Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Lechia Gdansk games / 48 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 48% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 27%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 3.70. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 80% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 48% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.90 / Widzew Łódź 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.953 / def 1.159 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.037 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 48% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.95x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.99
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.28
1.38
Widzew Łódź xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.38 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 10D 24L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 16W 9D 23L from 48 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.08 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.35 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 56%, Widzew Łódź 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lechia Gdansk) and 61% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 65% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 61% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.90 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 48% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 27%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 60%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.08 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.