Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Raków Częstochowa arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Raków Częstochowa in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 49% versus Raków Częstochowa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 51% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.93 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.864 / defence 1.048 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.916 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.158. Data: 45 Lechia Gdansk games / 46 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 40%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Raków Częstochowa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Raków Częstochowa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.93 / Raków Częstochowa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.864 / def 1.048 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.916 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 30% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.86x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.92x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.30
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 11D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.04 PPG from 45 outings (27W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.76 points per game from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.71 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 27W 11D 7L in their last 45 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 43%, Raków Częstochowa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lechia Gdansk) and 48% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 38%; Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 48% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 0-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.93 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 30% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 40%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 51%, Raków Częstochowa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.