Lechia Gdansk 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Energa Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 4W 4D 1L across 9 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.78 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.89 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Stadion Energa Gdańsk this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Energa Gdańsk. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.78 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Stadion Energa Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.29 PPG across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.78 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.29 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Legia Warszawa in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 43% versus Legia Warszawa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 57% | Legia Warszawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.46 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.033 / defence 0.924 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.711 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.196. Data: 9 Lechia Gdansk games / 7 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 53% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 20%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 5.00. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 25% | Legia Warszawa 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 53% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.46 / Legia Warszawa 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.033 / def 0.924 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.711 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Legia Warszawa xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 53% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.03) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.71x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 9/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.74
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.24
0.79
Legia Warszawa xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.79 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 3D 1L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.33 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Lechia Gdansk) and 0% (Legia Warszawa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Lechia Gdansk and 0% for Legia Warszawa.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 33%; Legia Warszawa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 0% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 0% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.46 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.79 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 53% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 20%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 57%, Legia Warszawa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.