Lechia Gdansk 2-3 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lechia Gdansk face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lechia Gdansk welcome GKS Katowice to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, GKS Katowice have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lechia Gdansk at 1.60 PPG versus GKS Katowice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for GKS Katowice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Lechia Gdansk 0–2 GKS Katowice — a GKS Katowice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lechia Gdansk in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 64% versus GKS Katowice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 54% | GKS Katowice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.75 xG and GKS Katowice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.000 / defence 1.144 | GKS Katowice attack 0.875 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 33 games and GKS Katowice's last 33.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 49% | Draw 24% | GKS Katowice 27%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.03 | Draw 4.22 | GKS Katowice 3.69. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 50% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 34 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 49% | Draw 24% | GKS Katowice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.75 / GKS Katowice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.000 / def 1.144 | GKS Katowice attack 0.875 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.24
GKS Katowice xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 3 GKS Katowice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 34) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 49% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.00) and GKS Katowice's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 33 games and GKS Katowice's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.22
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.99
1.24
GKS Katowice xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.24 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 7D 16L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
GKS Katowice's form line: 13W 7D 13L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.12 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 16 home games (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, GKS Katowice have gone 5W 2D 9L from their last 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.39 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
GKS Katowice
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
GKS Katowice
Current Season
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 10W 7D 16L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or GKS Katowice away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.44 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
3
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: GKS Katowice 2-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, GKS Katowice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lechia Gdansk) and 56% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 44% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 56% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 88% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GKS Katowice defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Lechia Gdansk 2-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.75 xG and GKS Katowice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.00 / defence 1.14 against GKS Katowice attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 49% | Draw 24% | GKS Katowice 27%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual GKS Katowice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 54%, GKS Katowice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.12 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.