Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 4 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Energa Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Lechia Gdansk have the edge — a 1.34 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lechia Gdansk register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 67% and Cracovia Krakow 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lechia Gdansk 0% | Cracovia Krakow 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.880 / defence 0.984 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.688 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.157. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Lechia Gdansk games / 3 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 4.35. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 39% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lechia Gdansk 67% | Cracovia Krakow 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.23 / Cracovia Krakow 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.880 / def 0.984 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.688 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cracovia Krakow xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 46% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.31
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.01
0.78
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.78 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Lechia Gdansk or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lechia Gdansk at 67%, Cracovia Krakow at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Lechia Gdansk and 33% for Cracovia Krakow.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.78 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 0%, Cracovia Krakow 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Lechia Gdansk scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.