Lech Poznan 5-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lech Poznan host Wisla Krakow at INEA stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 4W 3D 0L from 7 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 0.71 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.71 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lech Poznan have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lech Poznan have posted 2W 2D 0L at INEA stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at INEA stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have recorded 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.29. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.57 PPG ahead (2.14 vs 1.57). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Wisla Krakow trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 57% and Wisla Krakow 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 43% | Wisla Krakow 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.33 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 0.954 / defence 0.868 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.016 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.156. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lech Poznan games / 7 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Krakow 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Lech Poznan 25% | Wisla Krakow 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: INEA stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lech Poznan 1.33 / Wisla Krakow 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 0.954 / def 0.868 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.016 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 September 2021 at INEA stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Lech Poznan 5 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at INEA stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 43% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lech Poznan's attack at 0.95x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.33
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.35
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.02 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 4W 3D 0L from 7 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lech Poznan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded. Wisla Krakow's attacking output running into Lech Poznan's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 71%.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.33 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lech Poznan
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Wisla Krakow 1-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lech Poznan at 33%, Wisla Krakow at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Lech Poznan) and 100% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Lech Poznan's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Wisla Krakow 5-0 at INEA stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.33 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.02 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Krakow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Wisla Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 43% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 27%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 43%, Wisla Krakow 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.