Lech Poznan 2-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Warta Poznań travel to INEA stadion to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at INEA stadion, Lech Poznan have gone 6W 2D 0L this season (8 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at INEA stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Lech Poznan are significantly better at INEA stadion than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lech Poznan have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Lech Poznan's 25% and Warta Poznań's 14% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lech Poznan 40% | Warta Poznań 27%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lech Poznan 40% | Warta Poznań 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.77 xG and Warta Poznań 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.329 / defence 0.721 | Warta Poznań attack 0.691 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.205. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 Lech Poznan games / 15 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 22% | Warta Poznań 12%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Warta Poznań 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 25% | Warta Poznań 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: INEA stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 22% | Warta Poznań 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 38% | xG Lech Poznan 1.77 / Warta Poznań 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.329 / def 0.721 | Warta Poznań attack 0.691 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Warta Poznań xG
38%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at INEA stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań?
Lech Poznan 2 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at INEA stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań part of?
Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 66% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lech Poznan's attack rating (1.33) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.45
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.38
0.60
Warta Poznań xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
49.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.60 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lech Poznan come into this having played 15 games, going 9W 5D 1L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 0.73 PPG from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lech Poznan's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.13 PPG overall — Lech Poznan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.67 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań in 27%.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 9W 5D 1L in their last 15 games (2.13 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Warta Poznań away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.71 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Lech Poznan
0
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 6, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Lech Poznan 2-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Warta Poznań?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lech Poznan 29% BTTS, Warta Poznań 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lech Poznan) and 43% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 14% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 43% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Warta Poznań 2-0 at INEA stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.77 xG and Warta Poznań 0.60 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.33 / defence 0.72 against Warta Poznań attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 22% | Warta Poznań 12%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 40%, Warta Poznań 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.