Lech Poznan 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Lech Poznan take on Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Radomiak Radom travel to INEA stadion to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 July 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 0.71 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Lech Poznan games / 0 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 21% | Draw 41% | Radomiak Radom 38%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Radomiak Radom 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: INEA stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 21% | Draw 41% | Radomiak Radom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Lech Poznan 0.71 / Radomiak Radom 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Radomiak Radom xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 July 2021 at INEA stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at INEA stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 21% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Radomiak Radom xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.00 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Pre-Season
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lech Poznan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom finished level at 0-0 at INEA stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 0.71 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 21% | Draw 41% | Radomiak Radom 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.