Lech Poznan 4-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Poznan to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznan: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lech Poznan 1.40 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lech Poznan, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 58% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 60% | Radomiak Radom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.30 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.109 / defence 1.241 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.126 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.240. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Lech Poznan games / 49 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 90% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Poznan • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Lech Poznan 2.30 / Radomiak Radom 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.109 / def 1.241 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.126 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadion Poznan.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan 4 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznan.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 50% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Record (8 meetings): Lech Poznan 3W | Draws 4 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.45
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
4.03
1.73
Radomiak Radom xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
3%
35.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.73 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 27W 10D 11L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (15W 4D 4L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.54 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 71%.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 27W 10D 11L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.13 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lech Poznan at 70%, Radomiak Radom at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lech Poznan and 74% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Lech Poznan's games and 70% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lech Poznan's matches and 74% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 4-1 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.30 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.13 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 60%, Radomiak Radom 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.