Lech Poznan 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Poznań to face Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lech Poznan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznań: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Poznań. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lech Poznan are significantly better at Stadion Poznań than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lech Poznan, 2.00 for Legia Warszawa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lech Poznan lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Lech Poznan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 41% versus Legia Warszawa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 48% | Legia Warszawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.58 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.394 / defence 0.817 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.792 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.115. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Lech Poznan games / 27 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 16%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 30% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Poznań • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Lech Poznan 1.58 / Legia Warszawa 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.394 / def 0.817 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.792 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Legia Warszawa xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Poznań.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznań.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 57% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Lech Poznan 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.79x) against Lech Poznan's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.68
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.30
0.72
Legia Warszawa xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
30.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.72 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 16W 7D 4L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 11W 2D 14L from 27 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — Lech Poznan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 16W 7D 4L in their last 27 games (2.04 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 2D 14L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.46 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lech Poznan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lech Poznan
5
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Lech Poznan) and 46% (Legia Warszawa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lech Poznan) and 38% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 38% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Poznań, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.58 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.72 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 16%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Legia Warszawa 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.