ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz to take on ŁKS Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of ŁKS Łódź's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 46% versus Raków Częstochowa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 50% | Raków Częstochowa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.09 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.840 / defence 1.436 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.039 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.144. Data: 24 ŁKS Łódź games / 58 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 22% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 50%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.00. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ŁKS Łódź 50% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 22% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.09 / Raków Częstochowa 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.840 / def 1.436 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.039 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
ŁKS Łódź 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 22% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
22%
4.45
28%
3.61
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.80
1.71
Raków Częstochowa xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
24.57
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.71 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 24 games, going 4W 4D 16L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
The Goals Picture
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 4W 4D 16L in their last 24 games (0.67 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 12W 7D 5L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.08 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.08 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ŁKS Łódź at 50%, Raków Częstochowa at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (ŁKS Łódź) and 58% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 83% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 58% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 25, as ŁKS Łódź and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.09 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.71 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.84 / defence 1.44 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 22% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 50%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 50%, Raków Częstochowa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.