Jagiellonia 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 2.60 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Jagiellonia's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Raków Częstochowa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 51% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.18 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.213 / defence 1.039 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.008 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.084. Data: 55 Jagiellonia games / 55 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 34%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 60% | Raków Częstochowa 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Jagiellonia 1.18 / Raków Częstochowa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.213 / def 1.039 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.008 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.26
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.31
1.14
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.14 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 14W 22D 19L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 35W 13D 7L across 55 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.99 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jagiellonia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 15W 6D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.80 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 14W 22D 19L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 13D 7L in their last 55 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.44 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Raków Częstochowa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jagiellonia) and 52% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 37%; Raków Częstochowa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 44% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.18 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 34%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 51%, Raków Częstochowa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.