Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 2D 1L at Stadion Miejski — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 2L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 50% versus Radomiak Radom 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jagiellonia 40% | Radomiak Radom 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.15 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.911 / defence 0.952 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.804 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.178. Data: 10 Jagiellonia games / 10 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 41% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 41% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Jagiellonia 1.15 / Radomiak Radom 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.911 / def 0.952 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.804 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.80x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.32
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.05
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.90 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 3D 3L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (2W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.20 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 60%.
Defensively: Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 40%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jagiellonia) and 40% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.15 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 41% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 29%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 40%, Radomiak Radom 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.50 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.