Jagiellonia 1-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 49% as Jagiellonia take on Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 0.47 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.483 / away 0.679. Data: 0 Jagiellonia games / 0 Lechia Gdansk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 19% | Draw 49% | Lechia Gdansk 32%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 5.26 | Draw 2.04 | Lechia Gdansk 3.12. The draw (49%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 11% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.14. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 89% probability — total xG of 1.14 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Jagiellonia's lower xG of 0.47 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 49% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 19% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.14 combined xG gives a 11% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 19% | Draw 49% | Lechia Gdansk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 11% | BTTS 21% | xG Jagiellonia 0.47 / Lechia Gdansk 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.483 / away 0.679 • Poisson stance: Draw (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.47
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lechia Gdansk xG
21%
BTTS
34%
Over 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 19% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 32% chance, and a 49% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 11%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.47. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 33.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 67% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
19%
5.18
49%
2.04
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
32.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.47
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
1.14
0.66
Lechia Gdansk xG
5.18
19%
Home win
2.04
49%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
31%
Over 1.5
3.23
69%
Under 1.5
1.45
11%
Over 2.5
9.09
89%
Under 2.5
1.12
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.70
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
62%
1.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32.1 | 21.3 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 33.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.47 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.66 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 1.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Pre-Season
Lechia Gdansk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 1, as Jagiellonia and Lechia Gdansk drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 0.47 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.66 xG, a combined 1.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 19% | Draw 49% | Lechia Gdansk 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 11%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 34% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.