Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 3W, Widzew Łódź 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Widzew Łódź 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.026 / defence 0.938 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.955 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.242. Data: 63 Gornik Zabrze games / 63 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.72 / Widzew Łódź 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.026 / def 0.938 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.955 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 52% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.95x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.19
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.83
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.11 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 27W 13D 23L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 23W 13D 27L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.30 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.77 PPG from 31 outings (16W 7D 8L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 7W 10D 14L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 13D 23L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.77 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 45%, Widzew Łódź 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gornik Zabrze) and 55% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 74% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 55% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gornik Zabrze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 30, as Gornik Zabrze and Widzew Łódź drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 24% | Widzew Łódź 25%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.49 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.