Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Piast Gliwice 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.58 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.160 / defence 0.971 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.103 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.197. Data: 52 Gornik Zabrze games / 51 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Piast Gliwice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Piast Gliwice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.58 / Piast Gliwice 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.160 / def 0.971 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.103 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze 2 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 43% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.16x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.64
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.28 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 16W 17D 18L from 51 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (14W 5D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 6D 11L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.10 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.58 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.