Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cracovia Krakow 1.50 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cracovia Krakow's 20% rate and Slask Wroclaw's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Slask Wroclaw 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 41% versus Slask Wroclaw 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 38% | Slask Wroclaw 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.067 / defence 0.784 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.849 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.123. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Cracovia Krakow games / 56 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 23%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 4.35. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 20% | Slask Wroclaw 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.17 / Slask Wroclaw 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.067 / def 0.784 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.849 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Slask Wroclaw xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 46% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.07x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.27
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
1.92
0.75
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.75 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 15D 20L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 14W 21D 21L from 56 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.39 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 8D 12L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 21D 21L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.70 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 33%, Slask Wroclaw 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cracovia Krakow) and 41% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 26% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 59% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 41% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, as Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.75 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.07 / defence 0.78 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 23%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 38%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.