Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 2L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 75% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Radomiak Radom 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.145 / defence 1.292 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.792 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.227. Data: 12 Cracovia Krakow games / 12 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 80% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.46 / Radomiak Radom 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.145 / def 1.292 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.792 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 42% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.15x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.79x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.90
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Radomiak Radom xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.25 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 2L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.33 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 7D 2L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.60 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-0 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Cracovia Krakow, 60% for Radomiak Radom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Cracovia Krakow and 40% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 60% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 40% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.15 / defence 1.29 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Radomiak Radom 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.