Cracovia Krakow 3-3 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Lech Poznan at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lech Poznan — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 58% versus Lech Poznan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 47% | Lech Poznan 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG and Lech Poznan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.890 / defence 1.142 | Lech Poznan attack 0.901 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.204. Data: 19 Cracovia Krakow games / 19 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 38%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Lech Poznan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cracovia Krakow 56% | Lech Poznan 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.17 / Lech Poznan 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.890 / def 1.142 | Lech Poznan attack 0.901 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lech Poznan xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 3 Lech Poznan.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.63
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Lech Poznan xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.24 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 7W 5D 7L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 12W 5D 2L from 19 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.95 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 12W 5D 2L in their last 19 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.56 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
6
Draws
3
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 56%, Lech Poznan 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cracovia Krakow) and 56% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 67% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 56% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 20, as Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.17 xG and Lech Poznan 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Lech Poznan attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 38%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 47%, Lech Poznan 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.