Cracovia Krakow 2-2 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cracovia Krakow, 0.90 for ŁKS Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for ŁKS Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 54% versus ŁKS Łódź 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 35% | ŁKS Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.66 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.248 / defence 1.136 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.713 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.146. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Cracovia Krakow games / 26 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 73% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 9%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | ŁKS Łódź 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | ŁKS Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 73% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 58% | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.66 / ŁKS Łódź 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.248 / def 1.136 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.713 / def 1.484 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.93
ŁKS Łódź xG
58%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 2 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 73% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | ŁKS Łódź 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against ŁKS Łódź's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.71x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.44
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.59
0.93
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
7%
14.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
157.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.93 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 5W 13D 8L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ŁKS Łódź's form line: 4W 5D 17L from 26 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 0D 12L from 13 away games — 0.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ŁKS Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.81 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 13D 8L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 4W 5D 17L in their last 26 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or ŁKS Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.15 PPG; ŁKS Łódź away: 0.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2024, when Cracovia Krakow 2-2 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 62%, ŁKS Łódź 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cracovia Krakow) and 62% (ŁKS Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play ŁKS Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 38% of ŁKS Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 62% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 27, as Cracovia Krakow and ŁKS Łódź drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.66 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.93 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.25 / defence 1.14 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.71 / defence 1.48, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 73% | Draw 18% | ŁKS Łódź 9%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 35%, ŁKS Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.