Viking 3-3 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Stabaek meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 2W 1D 3L at SR-Bank Arena — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Viking, 1.20 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Stabaek in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 54% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 69% | Stabaek 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.63 xG and Stabaek 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 0.984 / defence 1.138 | Stabaek attack 0.854 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.340. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Viking games / 13 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 31%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Stabaek 3.23. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 67% | Stabaek 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Viking 1.63 / Stabaek 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 0.984 / def 1.138 | Stabaek attack 0.854 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Stabaek xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stabaek kick off?
Viking vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stabaek?
Viking 3 - 3 Stabaek.
Where is Viking vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stabaek part of?
Viking vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 45% chance of winning, Stabaek a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Viking and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Stabaek in?
Viking (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 0.98x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.85x) against Viking's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.12
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Viking xG
Total xG
2.93
1.30
Stabaek xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Viking and 1.30 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 3D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Viking against 1.31 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Viking's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stabaek away?
Stabaek's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.17 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Viking or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stabaek in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Viking
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2023, when Viking 1-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stabaek?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Viking, 83% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 83% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 83% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 83% of Stabaek's.
Do Viking and Stabaek tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Stabaek share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Viking and Stabaek drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.63 xG and Stabaek 1.30 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Stabaek attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 45% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 31%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 69%, Stabaek 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 0.92 PPG, Stabaek 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.