Viking 1-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Viking welcome Sandefjord to SR-Bank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Viking have won 1, Sandefjord 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 68% versus Sandefjord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 73% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.66 xG and Sandefjord 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.138 / defence 0.651 | Sandefjord attack 1.004 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.449. Viking's defence rating of 0.651 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Viking games / 38 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 4.76. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Viking 100% | Sandefjord 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Viking 1.66 / Sandefjord 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.138 / def 0.651 | Sandefjord attack 1.004 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Viking (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sandefjord xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sandefjord kick off?
Viking vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Viking 1 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Viking vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sandefjord part of?
Viking vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 54% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Viking and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.14) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.10
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Viking xG
Total xG
2.61
0.95
Sandefjord xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
24.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Viking and 0.95 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 14D 17L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (10W 2D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.15 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sandefjord away?
Viking's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.83 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Viking
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sandefjord?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 80%, Sandefjord at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 57% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do Viking and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Viking 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Viking 1-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.66 xG and Sandefjord 0.95 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 0.65 against Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sandefjord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.