Viking 1-4 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 2.40 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Viking, 0 for Molde and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 4–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Molde — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 74% and Molde 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 70% | Molde 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 0.85 xG and Molde 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 0.747 / defence 1.061 | Molde attack 1.242 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.390. Viking's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Viking games / 57 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 17% | Draw 22% | Molde 61%. Fair-value odds: Viking 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Molde 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Molde (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Viking 60% | Molde 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 17% | Draw 22% | Molde 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Viking 0.85 / Molde 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 0.747 / def 1.061 | Molde attack 1.242 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Molde (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Molde xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Molde kick off?
Viking vs Molde kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Molde?
Viking 1 - 4 Molde.
Where is Viking vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Molde part of?
Viking vs Molde is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 17% chance of winning, Molde a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Viking and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Molde?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | Molde 0W.
What form are Viking and Molde in?
Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Viking's attack rating (0.75) and Molde's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.24x) against Viking's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
17%
5.89
22%
4.46
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Viking xG
Total xG
2.68
1.83
Molde xG
5.89
17%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
36.79
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Viking and 1.83 for Molde, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Viking have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 26W 13D 18L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 40W 9D 8L from 57 games, 2.26 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L).
On the road, Molde have gone 18W 6D 4L from 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.33 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Molde in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 13D 18L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while Molde have gone 40W 9D 8L in their last 57 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.75 PPG; Molde away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Viking or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Molde in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Molde have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Viking 4-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Molde?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 75%, Molde 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Viking and 54% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Viking's games and 54% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Viking's matches and 54% of Molde's.
Do Viking and Molde tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Molde in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Viking 1-4 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 0.85 xG and Molde 1.83 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Molde attack 1.24 / defence 0.65, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 17% | Draw 22% | Molde 61%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 70%, Molde 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.